TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi predicts whether there will be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz between September 28, 2026 and October 4, 2026. Currently, the leading outcome – that there *will* be more than 15 transit calls – is priced at 99.0%. The market resolves based on data reported by the IMF PortWatch regarding the number of transit calls during the specified period. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments in the region as the October 4, 2026 end date of the betting period approaches, as any disruptions could significantly impact vessel traffic.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from September 28 to October 4, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (e.g., above 10, above 15, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the total number of daily transit calls summed over the week exceeds the respective threshold. All markets share a consistent calculation method: the total is derived by aggregating daily counts across the seven-day period. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, contingent upon the availability of complete and verified data from IMF PortWatch. The structure allows participants to speculate on various levels of traffic intensity, with higher thresholds representing more significant surges in maritime activity.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on geopolitical events affecting the Strait of Hormuz. While polls often capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as betting involves real financial stakes. It’s important to remember that polls and prediction markets measure different things, and both can provide valuable insights, though this market focuses on incentivized forecasts rather than expressed beliefs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes regarding traffic flow. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the price movements can signal shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the average daily volume of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period (September 28th to October 4th). The exact threshold for each outcome will be defined by Kalshi and verified against reliable sources of maritime traffic data.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 6, 2026. Increased geopolitical tensions in the region, such as heightened military activity or attacks on shipping vessels, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major disruptions to oil production or demand could also impact shipping traffic. Unexpected weather events, like severe storms, could temporarily affect transit. Finally, any official statements or actions by key regional or international actors regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz could move the market.
