TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 15
- Kalshi
Above 15 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:16h:35m
Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport, over a one-week period. The resolution depends on whether the total number of vessel transit calls within this timeframe exceeds specific thresholds. These thresholds represent varying levels of traffic intensity, reflecting potential geopolitical or economic influences on shipping patterns.
Kalshi
This event evaluates whether the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds one of several predefined thresholds between November 2, 2026, and November 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (e.g., above 15, above 20, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the summed daily transit counts for the entire period surpass the respective threshold. All markets share the same calculation methodology: daily counts are aggregated over the seven-day window, and resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring complete and verified data availability. The structure allows participants to assess varying levels of traffic intensity, with higher thresholds representing more significant deviations from expected norms.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as there aren’t widely available public polls specifically forecasting the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical analysts generally agree that traffic volume is subject to regional instability and potential disruptions, which is reflected in the pricing of this market. Discrepancies between expert opinions and the market’s prediction could indicate differing assessments of risk or the likelihood of unforeseen events impacting shipping lanes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether there will be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period. The price of these contracts reflects the market’s collective probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of the event occurring. The current market volume is $42,058, demonstrating the level of interest and trading activity.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz between November 2nd and November 8th, 2026, as reported by a recognized authority on maritime traffic. The market will determine whether that number exceeds 15, establishing the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor news and data sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, such as conflicts involving Iran or disruptions to oil production, would likely increase the perceived risk of shipping disruptions and move the market. Major naval exercises in the region, attacks on commercial vessels, or changes in international sanctions could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected weather events, like severe storms, are less likely but could also temporarily affect traffic and influence trading activity in this market.
