TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether there will be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz between October 5, 2026 and October 11, 2026. Currently, the leading outcome – that there *will* be more than 10 transit calls – is trading at 99.0% on Kalshi. The market will resolve based on data reported by the IMF PortWatch regarding transit calls during that timeframe. Traders should particularly watch for any developments related to regional maritime security as the resolution date of October 13, 2026 approaches, as this will indicate the final count of transit calls within the event window.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specified threshold (ranging from 10 to 100) between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026. The total is the sum of daily counts across all seven days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often differ from traditional polling averages on geopolitical events like potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Polls tend to capture stated opinions, while this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting. While public polls may indicate a certain level of concern about traffic flow, the actual implied probability reflected in this market may be higher or lower depending on informed traders’ assessments of the situation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves based on supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time forecast of the event's likelihood, based on the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official data regarding the volume of maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period (October 5th to October 11th). The exact methodology for determining the outcome will be based on publicly available data sources and assessed for consistency and reliability. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as increased military presence or direct confrontations, would likely drive up prices on outcomes reflecting disruptions to traffic. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or assurances of safe passage could lower those prices. Major incidents affecting shipping, like attacks on tankers or blockades, would also have a substantial impact. Even significant shifts in oil prices or global trade patterns could influence trader sentiment and move this market.
