TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil and goods transport. The resolution depends on whether the total number of vessel transit calls within a specific week meets or exceeds certain thresholds. Data from a trusted maritime monitoring source will determine the outcome.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, over the period from October 19 to October 25, 2026. Each market has a different threshold (ranging from above 15 to above 50 transit calls) that, if exceeded, results in a 'Yes' outcome for that specific market. The total is calculated by summing the daily transit counts across the entire seven-day period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before any resolution occurs.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages on geopolitical events like those impacting the Strait of Hormuz. While polls capture stated opinions, this market aggregates informed speculation through financial commitment. Discrepancies can arise because traders consider a wider range of factors and have a financial incentive to be accurate. If polls suggest a certain level of stability, but this market indicates increased risk, it could signal that traders are anticipating factors not fully captured in public opinion surveys. It's important to consider both data sources for a comprehensive understanding.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase it, and it also indicates the market's expectation of that outcome occurring. Higher prices suggest a greater perceived probability, while lower prices indicate a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of potential future events.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data concerning the average daily volume of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period (October 19th - October 25th). The specific threshold for determining the outcome will be defined by Kalshi and available on the market page. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions are settled once the data is verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, such as increased military presence or direct confrontations, would likely increase perceived risk and shift the odds. Major disruptions to oil production or shipping routes in the region could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected statements from key political figures or changes in international sanctions policies could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any credible reports of attacks on shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would likely cause a rapid shift in prices.
