TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the volume of ship transits through the Panama Canal over a one-week period. It reflects how busy global shipping routes are during that specific window, influenced by trade patterns, seasonal factors, and any disruptions to normal operations. The outcome depends on whether the total number of transits meets or exceeds certain thresholds.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, during the period from September 28 to October 4, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 175 to 275 transit calls) that, if exceeded by the summed daily counts, results in a 'Yes' outcome for that particular market. All markets share the same data source and calculation method: the total is derived by adding up the daily transit counts across the entire seven-day window. Resolution for all markets will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before any final determination is made.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren't widely available polls specifically forecasting Panama Canal transit numbers. However, analysts are monitoring factors like rainfall in the Panama watershed, shipping demand, and potential restrictions imposed by the Panama Canal Authority. These factors influence expectations for traffic volume, and the price action in this market reflects a collective assessment of these variables. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations could indicate differing beliefs about the likelihood of disruptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of exceeding 200 transit calls. As more traders buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome. Conversely, selling 'yes' contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants trading in this market, providing a real-time estimate of the expected outcome. The price also adjusts based on the time remaining until the resolution date.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of transit calls through the Panama Canal between September 28, 2026, and October 4, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Panama Canal Authority publishes data on transit numbers, and this will be used to determine whether the market settles above or below the 200 transit call threshold. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Panama Canal Authority as the resolution date approaches to understand the final data.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major weather events, such as prolonged droughts or unusually heavy rainfall in the Panama watershed, could lead to restrictions on ship drafts and transit numbers. Changes in global shipping demand, particularly affecting container ships and LNG carriers, would also be a key driver. Geopolitical events impacting major trade routes, or unexpected disruptions to the Panama Canal’s infrastructure, could also cause substantial price movement. Any official announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding operational changes will be closely watched by traders.
