TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 07d:07h:01m
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the volume of commercial and vessel movements through the Panama Canal over a one-week period. It reflects broader trends in global trade and shipping efficiency, influenced by factors such as economic activity, seasonal patterns, and canal operational capacity.
Kalshi
All markets in this event evaluate whether the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal, as officially reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds specific numerical thresholds between November 2 and November 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold — ranging from above 170 to above 220 transit calls — with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the cumulative daily count for the week meets or exceeds that threshold. The total is derived by summing the daily transit counts across all seven days of the specified period. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring all data is fully reported and verified before any outcome is finalized.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren't widely available polls specifically forecasting the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal. However, analysts following the situation have noted potential disruptions due to drought conditions and geopolitical factors. These analyses generally suggest a degree of uncertainty around normal traffic flow, which is reflected in the pricing of this market. Discrepancies between expert opinions and the market could reveal valuable insights into collective intelligence.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. Currently, the market is indicating a certain level of confidence in the potential for a specific number of transit calls, driven by factors like water levels and shipping schedules. The current volume suggests active trading and evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of transit calls through the Panama Canal between November 2nd and November 8th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official count of transit calls will be the determining factor, and this data will be sourced from authorities responsible for managing Panama Canal operations. The resolution process aims to provide a clear and objective determination of whether the market's prediction was accurate, based on publicly available data.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in rainfall patterns and water levels in the Panama Canal watershed are key factors, as drought conditions could lead to transit restrictions. Geopolitical events impacting global shipping routes, such as conflicts or trade disputes, could also influence traffic volume. Major announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding operational changes or restrictions would be closely watched. Finally, unexpected surges or declines in global trade demand could shift the number of ships seeking to transit the canal, thereby moving this market.
