TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the volume of ship transits through the Panama Canal over a one-week period. It reflects how busy global trade routes are during that specific window, influenced by factors like seasonal shipping patterns, economic activity, and any disruptions to alternate routes. The outcome depends on whether the total number of transits exceeds certain thresholds.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, from October 5, 2026, to October 11, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (above 175, 200, 225, 250, or 275 transit calls) that must be exceeded for that market to resolve to Yes. The total is calculated by summing the daily transit counts across the entire period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available, ensuring that all participants have access to the final figures before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding potential disruptions to Panama Canal traffic. While polls often capture general sentiment, this market aggregates informed speculation from a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies may arise due to differing levels of expertise and access to real-time information about factors like water levels, vessel queues, and geopolitical considerations. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect what people *believe* will happen, not necessarily what they *want* to happen, which can influence poll responses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing perspectives, creating a constantly evolving assessment of potential traffic levels through the Panama Canal.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of vessel transits through the Panama Canal between October 5th and October 11th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official data released by the Panama Canal Authority or other recognized sources. The final price of the contracts will reflect the accuracy of the market’s collective prediction, and traders will be paid out accordingly based on their positions.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in rainfall patterns affecting Gatun Lake water levels are a key concern, as lower levels restrict transit capacity. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the region or disruptions to global shipping routes, could also influence traffic. Furthermore, any announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding transit restrictions, scheduling changes, or maintenance work would likely cause price fluctuations. Monitoring vessel queues and global trade data will also be crucial in understanding potential shifts in this market.
