TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
What will traffic be through the Panama Canal?
Above 170
- Kalshi
Above 170 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 15h:53m:30s
Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the volume of commercial and vessel traffic moving through the Panama Canal over a specific week. The Panama Canal serves as a crucial shortcut connecting Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, handling a significant portion of global trade. Monitoring these transit levels provides insight into shipping demand, economic activity, and operational capacity during that period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal reported by IMF PortWatch from October 26 to November 1, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold—ranging from above 170 to above 220 transits—if the actual count exceeds that threshold, the market settles as Yes; otherwise, it settles as No. The total is derived by summing daily transit counts across all seven days of the specified period. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring all data is fully reported and verified before final settlement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there are limited public polls specifically addressing the number of Panama Canal transits during this timeframe. However, expert analysis suggests that ongoing drought conditions and water level restrictions could significantly impact traffic. If analysts predict a substantial decrease in transit capacity, we might expect to see the odds shift towards the ‘under’ outcome in this market. Discrepancies between the market price and expert forecasts could present potential trading opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust accordingly. Currently, the top outcome, ‘Will there be more than 195 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?’, has a chance percentage of 96.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of transit calls through the Panama Canal between October 26, 2026, and November 1, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Panama Canal Authority’s official data will be the basis for determining whether the total number of transits exceeds 195. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether the actual number of transits aligns with their predictions in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in rainfall patterns in the Panama Canal watershed, and subsequent adjustments to water level restrictions, would be key drivers. Major geopolitical events affecting global shipping routes could also shift expectations. Any announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding transit capacity or scheduling changes would likely cause price movement. Finally, economic indicators suggesting a slowdown or acceleration in global trade could influence predictions about the volume of traffic through the Panama Canal, impacting this market.
