TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the volume of ship transits through the Panama Canal over a specific week, reflecting broader trends in global trade and maritime logistics. The outcome depends on whether the total number of transits exceeds various thresholds, providing insight into the canal's operational capacity and utilization during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Panama Canal transit calls occurring between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold—ranging from above 170 to above 220 transit calls—that, if surpassed, results in a 'Yes' resolution for that specific market. The total transit count is derived by summing daily transit figures across the entire seven-day period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before final determination. This structure allows participants to assess varying levels of canal traffic intensity with corresponding market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling on the potential for disruptions to Panama Canal traffic. While polls often capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs. It's important to note that polling averages on this topic are limited, but available analyses suggest a degree of uncertainty similar to what's reflected in the current pricing of this market. The market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities based on actual financial stakes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase one unit of exposure to a specific outcome; a higher price indicates a lower probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official data released by the Panama Canal Authority regarding the number of vessels that transited the canal between October 19th and October 25th. The specific data point used for resolution will be publicly available and transparent, ensuring a fair and accurate determination of the market’s outcome. This allows traders to confidently assess their positions as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected weather events, such as severe droughts or heavy rainfall, could disrupt canal operations and impact traffic flow. Geopolitical events, including potential strikes or political instability in the region, could also cause delays. Furthermore, any announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding changes to transit restrictions or water levels would likely influence trading activity. Finally, major shifts in global trade patterns or unexpected increases in demand for shipping could also impact the market’s price.
