TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Similar to the Suez Canal, shipping through the Panama Canal will be monitored for the same week. Different thresholds will determine market outcomes, offering insights into traffic patterns on another critical maritime passage connecting Atlantic and Pacific trade routes.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specific threshold between October 12 and October 18, 2026. The total is the sum of daily counts over the seven-day period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period, after complete data becomes available.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds for this event to traditional polling averages, as there are no widely available polls specifically addressing the number of Panama Canal transits during this timeframe. However, analysts are closely watching water levels in Gatun Lake and the overall impact of the El Niño weather pattern on shipping. If expert forecasts predict significant disruptions, we might see a divergence between this market and the expectations reflected in those analyses. This market offers a real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence, which may differ from static polling data.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of transit calls through the Panama Canal between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026, will be used to determine whether the market settles above or below the 230 transit call threshold. This data will be sourced from official Panama Canal Authority records and other publicly available maritime tracking data to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major weather events, particularly those impacting rainfall in the Panama Canal watershed and water levels in Gatun Lake, are key catalysts. Any announcements from the Panama Canal Authority regarding draft restrictions or transit limitations would also likely move the market. Additionally, global economic indicators affecting shipping demand, such as changes in trade volumes or fuel prices, could play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events impacting major shipping routes could also shift trader sentiment and influence the price of contracts in this market.
