TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
What will traffic be through the strait?
Above 150
- Kalshi
Above 150 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 12h:27m:45s
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?
$
Description
This event tracks maritime activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Participants assess whether ship transit volumes will exceed specific thresholds during a defined period, reflecting broader economic and geopolitical dynamics influencing global shipping routes.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for ship transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26 and November 1, 2026, using data reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold (ranging from 150 to 220 transit calls). For any given market, if the total number of transit calls summed daily over the specified period exceeds its threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical calculation methods: daily counts are aggregated over the six-day window, and resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's conclusion, contingent upon the availability of complete data. This structure allows participants to speculate on varying levels of maritime traffic intensity during the specified timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding potential disruptions to traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While polls often capture stated opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing a more accurate assessment of perceived risk. It's important to note that polls and prediction markets address different questions – polls gauge opinions, while this market forecasts a specific outcome. Any discrepancies between the two could signal valuable insights into underlying beliefs and expectations about this critical waterway.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about traffic volume through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment, making it a dynamic representation of collective intelligence. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the volume of traffic passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified timeframe, October 26th to November 1st. The precise methodology for determining traffic volume will be based on established shipping data sources and industry standards, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2026. Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region, particularly involving Yemen or surrounding countries, would likely cause price fluctuations. Reports of attacks on commercial vessels, or increased naval presence in the area, could also move the market. Furthermore, major disruptions to global shipping routes, such as those caused by weather events or logistical bottlenecks, could influence trader sentiment and contract prices. News regarding insurance rates for vessels transiting the strait will also be a key indicator.
