TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks maritime activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Participants assess whether ship transit volumes will surpass specific thresholds during a defined week. The outcome depends on aggregated shipping data reported by a trusted international financial institution.
Kalshi
All markets in this event evaluate whether the total number of vessel transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as officially recorded by the IMF PortWatch system, exceeds various numerical thresholds between October 19 and October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold value, ranging from 150 to 220 transit calls. The determining factor is the cumulative daily count across the entire seven-day period. Regardless of the specific threshold being evaluated, all markets share identical calculation methodology and resolution timing. Resolution will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the measurement window, ensuring all participants have access to verified, complete data before any market settles.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data on potential disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While public opinion polls may gauge general concern about geopolitical risks, this market aggregates the informed opinions of individuals with skin in the game. This often leads to a more nuanced and potentially more accurate forecast. It's important to remember that polls reflect stated opinions, while this market reflects actual willingness to bet on a specific outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like information asymmetry and differing levels of expertise.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be disrupted during the specified period. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market's price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the volume of commercial shipping traffic passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the period of October 19th to October 25th. A disruption will be defined by a significant decrease in traffic compared to historical averages, as determined by independent analysis of shipping data. The exact threshold for defining a disruption is not specified here, but will be based on verifiable data.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Escalations in the conflict in Yemen, or increased Houthi rebel activity targeting commercial vessels, would likely drive the price higher. Conversely, successful diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, or increased naval presence providing security for shipping lanes, could lower the price. Major geopolitical announcements from key regional players, or reports of attacks on ships in the area, would also be closely watched. Unexpected weather events impacting shipping routes could also play a role, though likely to a lesser extent.
