TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, will also be observed. Market outcomes hinge on whether transit call totals cross defined thresholds, shedding light on regional shipping dynamics and potential disruptions.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specific threshold between October 12 and October 18, 2026. The total is the sum of daily counts over the seven-day period. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period, after complete data becomes available.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as there aren’t widely available polls specifically addressing the anticipated number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified timeframe. However, expert analysis and geopolitical forecasts suggest a range of possibilities, with some anticipating increased disruptions and others predicting a continuation of current traffic levels. This market offers a unique, quantified perspective on the likelihood of increased traffic, distinct from qualitative assessments.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the verified number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. The final count will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking data and reports, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of whether the threshold of 160 transit calls was exceeded.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly involving Yemen or surrounding nations, would likely drive prices. Changes in Houthi rebel activity impacting shipping lanes are also key. Major incidents affecting commercial vessels, such as attacks or disruptions, could cause substantial price movements. Additionally, significant shifts in global oil prices or major shipping company rerouting decisions could influence trader sentiment and therefore the price of contracts in this market.
