TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 12:17 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026, to elect the mayor of Toronto, Ontario. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the October 26, 2026 election for Mayor of Toronto. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City of Toronto. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Polymarket
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026, to elect the mayor of Toronto, Ontario. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the October 26, 2026 election for Mayor of Toronto. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City of Toronto. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Toronto mayoral election. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, poll weighting, and the inclusion of informed traders in the prediction market. It’s important to remember that both polls and this market represent forecasts, but they are derived from different sources and motivated by different incentives.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Toronto mayoral election. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the City of Toronto following the mayoral election. The market will determine which outcome – the margin of victory being above or below a certain threshold – is the accurate result, as reported by these official sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final, verified result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as policy announcements or endorsements, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected events, like debates or controversies, could also lead to substantial price changes. Additionally, the release of new public opinion polls, even though this market isn’t directly tied to them, can impact trader perceptions. Finally, any news regarding voter turnout or potential irregularities in the election process could also affect the odds in this market.
