TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which AI company achieves the top position on a specific text-to-video leaderboard by a set date. It reflects competition among technology firms developing advanced AI systems capable of generating high-quality video content from textual descriptions. The outcome depends purely on performance metrics evaluated by an independent benchmarking platform.
The event determines the leading text-to-video AI model among participating companies as ranked on the Artificial Analysis Text to Video Leaderboard (With Audio) at 10:00am ET on September 25, 2026. If any listed entity achieves the #1 position, its corresponding market resolves to Yes; all others resolve to No. In cases where multiple entities tie for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies. If no such methodology exists, all tied entities share the top rank equally. Contracts for tied entities will resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied participants, rounded down. The event operators emphasize no official affiliation with the governing league or trademark holders involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume traded, influence how quickly and efficiently prices respond to new information. Currently, the volume suggests moderate interest in determining the leading Text to Video AI model this week.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of the 'Top Text to Video AI' will be based on publicly available rankings, benchmarks, or expert consensus regarding performance this week. Resolution will depend on identifying which AI model is most widely recognized as the leading performer during the specified timeframe. Traders should monitor relevant industry news and publications for updates that may influence the final outcome of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from AI companies regarding new model releases or performance improvements would likely cause shifts in the odds. Positive or negative reviews from prominent tech publications or influential figures in the AI community could also move the market. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI technology, or conversely, reports of significant limitations in existing models, would be key catalysts. Finally, the release of updated benchmark results comparing the performance of different Text to Video AI models will be closely watched by traders.