TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
kalshi

Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)

Volume:
$7,613

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,921
N/A
N/A
$4,560
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,218
N/A
N/A
$1,218
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$823
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
$213
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks which artificial intelligence model achieves the highest ranking in coding challenges on a specific platform by a set date. It reflects the competitive landscape of AI systems in performing complex programming tasks, showcasing advancements in machine learning and computational abilities.

Kalshi

The event determines the leading AI coding model on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard as of August 31, 2026, at 10:00 am ET. Each market corresponds to a specific AI model, resolving to Yes if that model holds the #1 position. In cases of tied rankings, the publisher's official tie-breaking rules apply; if unavailable, all tied models share the top rank. Contracts for tied models resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied participants, rounded down. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the top Coding AI market tracks real-time odds and price history exclusively on Kalshi. It shows how traders value different contenders to be named the leader in this space, with charts illustrating recent trends and a live view of 24-hour volume at $2,695. This single-venue feed captures market sentiment as it unfolds on Kalshi, offering a clear snapshot of where money is flowing within short_topic.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for each possible outcome. The displayed probability reflects the best available bid for contracts paying out if a specific AI tool leads the field by Aug 31, 2026. Market depth and liquidity at $7,613 help determine how quickly prices adjust to new information or shifts in trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ruling body will compare documented performance metrics — such as user adoption, feature releases, and independent benchmarks — to identify the clear leader at that moment. No subjective judgments are involved; the result is based solely on publicly observable data.