TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Science and Technology
Top Coding AI this month
kalshi

Top Coding AI this month

Volume:
$28,047

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,412
N/A
N/A
$5,088
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ChatGPT

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,975
N/A
N/A
$6,399
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,495
N/A
N/A
$3,167
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,441
N/A
N/A
$3,441
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,368
N/A
N/A
$2,318
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$848
N/A
N/A
$801
Settled
No
kalshi

Muse

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
$541
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$116
N/A
N/A
$115
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether Claude will hold the top position on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard for coding performance. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 98.0%. Resolution will be determined by the LM Code Arena Leaderboard rankings as of May 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, which will assess language models' coding capabilities across different AI developers. Watch the leaderboard snapshot on May 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET to see which model claims the top coding position.

Frequently asked questions

The Top Coding AI this month dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this Science and Technology event. You can monitor the current chance percentage, 24-hour trading volume of $3,308, and cumulative market depth. The dashboard displays how traders are pricing the likelihood of the top coding AI outcome through live order flow and settlement probabilities. Historical charts let you review price trends leading up to the May 31, 2026 resolution date, helping you identify momentum shifts and key trading patterns in this prediction market.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on published benchmarks, research papers, and expert opinion, prediction markets aggregate distributed information from thousands of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. For Top Coding AI this month, comparing the current market-implied probability to consensus analyst views reveals whether traders are pricing in factors analysts have overlooked or underweighted. This gap can signal emerging consensus or contrarian positioning ahead of resolution.

The Top Coding AI this month market resolves on May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether the specified outcome criteria are met by that deadline. Traders should monitor official announcements and event definitions provided by the platform to understand exactly which coding AI developments or rankings will trigger a yes or no resolution. Clarity on resolution criteria is essential for positioning; review the full market terms before trading to ensure your interpretation aligns with the settlement rules.

Several catalysts could shift the Top Coding AI this month market price before May 31, 2026. Major AI model releases, benchmark performance announcements, and competitive rankings from industry bodies could drive repricing. Funding announcements, regulatory developments, or partnerships involving leading coding AI projects may also influence trader sentiment. Technical breakthroughs in code generation, adoption metrics, or developer community activity could signal changing competitive dynamics. Media coverage and expert commentary often accelerate price moves by drawing attention to emerging data. Watch for quarterly earnings calls, conference presentations, and published research that directly address coding AI capabilities and market leadership.