TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Top Chinese AI Company week of August 17th
kalshi

Top Chinese AI Company week of August 17th

Volume:
$54,417

Alibaba

 - Kalshi

Alibaba - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alibaba

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,342
N/A
N/A
$4,717
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Xiaomi

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,646
N/A
N/A
$9,377
Settled
No
kalshi

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,566
N/A
N/A
$6,086
Settled
No
kalshi

Baidu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,474
N/A
N/A
$2,748
Settled
No
kalshi

Z.ai

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,195
N/A
N/A
$2,308
Settled
No
kalshi

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,592
N/A
N/A
$1,145
Settled
No
kalshi

ByteDance

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,436
N/A
N/A
$3,167
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,210
N/A
N/A
$2,339
Settled
No
kalshi

Moonshot

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,957
N/A
N/A
$2,281
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the competitive performance of leading Chinese AI firms by evaluating which company's model achieves the highest ranking in a specific AI text evaluation benchmark on a set date. The outcome reflects the relative capabilities of these technology firms in natural language processing tasks as measured by an independent assessment platform.

Kalshi

The event determines which qualifying Chinese AI company achieves the highest rank for its model on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) benchmark on August 24, 2026 at 10:00am ET. Companies must have their global or primary operational headquarters in mainland China to qualify. If multiple companies tie for the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank. In such tied scenarios, contracts for all tied parties resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. The platform bears no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Chinese AI leader market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume of $33. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around who will lead in China’s AI sector over the specified period, with visual charts updating continuously to reflect market sentiment and liquidity of $54,417.

Currently, this market reflects trader confidence through dynamic odds, which often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may highlight different companies based on recent product launches or funding news, while traders incorporate broader market sentiment and short-term expectations. Monitoring both can provide a fuller view of industry momentum and possible shifts in leadership.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, prices are set through continuous trading where participants buy and sell contracts based on their outlook. The current implied probability reflects the collective view of Kalshi traders about which firm is most likely to be atop the Chinese AI landscape by the event’s end, adjusting with each new trade.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by assessing which company is widely recognized as the top Chinese AI firm at that time, based on authoritative news sources and industry analysis.