TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 6:19 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Polymarket
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds in this market suggest a particular outcome is favored, but it’s important to consider how these probabilities align with traditional polling data. Polling averages often provide a snapshot of public opinion at a specific point in time, while this market represents a forward-looking assessment of probabilities based on the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors such as differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, or the inclusion of information not captured in polls. It's useful to analyze both sources to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome of the Tongatapu 2 by-election. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Tongatapu 2 by-election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official results released by the electoral commission will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will be paid out according to the final contract prices at resolution. This market provides a way to forecast the election results and potentially profit from accurate predictions.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 8, 2026. Major endorsements from prominent political figures, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, or significant campaign events could all influence trader sentiment. Any news regarding candidate controversies, changes in electoral regulations, or unforeseen external factors impacting the election could also lead to price fluctuations. Increased media coverage focusing on a particular candidate or policy position could also drive trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
