TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 7:44 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, the odds for this market often diverge from traditional polling averages due to trader expectations about turnout, late-breaking news, and strategic betting. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, prediction markets incorporate additional variables like campaign momentum and financial dynamics. Traders may price in a tighter race or a surprise contender not yet reflected in polls, leading to differences between market implied probabilities and survey results.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a decentralized order book where buyers and sellers set odds directly. The current implied chance reflects trader consensus, with volume of $43,718 indicating interest. Liquidity providers help narrow spreads, and price discovery evolves as new information emerges during the election cycle.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The second-place finisher will be determined by official vote tallies, and the market will close once authoritative sources confirm the final rankings of all candidates.
Key events such as debates, major endorsements, economic announcements, or scandals involving the candidates could shift this market. As Oct 5, 2026 approaches, trading activity will likely increase in response to any developments that change the perceived likelihood of each contender finishing second. Media coverage, polling updates, and campaign performance all remain important drivers of market movement in the run-up to resolution.
