TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 4:12 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The second round of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Tocantins governor election. Polling data often reflects stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This difference can be significant, as market prices incorporate not only who is currently leading but also perceptions of uncertainty and potential for shifts in voter behavior. Discrepancies between polls and this market can highlight areas where conventional wisdom may diverge from informed speculation.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the relevant electoral authorities for the Tocantins governor election. The market will determine the winning margin based on the official vote count, and contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are finalized and verified.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant endorsements, impactful debates, or unexpected scandals, could all shift market sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a substantial swing in voter preferences, would also likely move the market. Finally, any external events that could affect voter turnout or influence public opinion, such as economic news or national political developments, could also play a role in shaping the outcome of this market.
