TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 3, 1:02 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Talarico" if the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Paxton" if the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. If the "James Talarico (D)" option's and the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "James Talarico (D)" option or the "Ken Paxton (R)" option in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "James Talarico (D)" option and the "Ken Paxton (R)" option in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://www.predictionmarketodds.com/senate-texas-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Talarico" if the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Paxton" if the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "James Talarico (D)" option's hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. If the "James Talarico (D)" option's and the "Ken Paxton (R)" option's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "James Talarico (D)" option or the "Ken Paxton (R)" option in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "James Talarico (D)" option and the "Ken Paxton (R)" option in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://www.predictionmarketodds.com/senate-texas-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong favorite in the Texas Senate election. It's important to consider how this contrasts with traditional polling data. Polling averages often reflect a snapshot in time and can be subject to biases, while this market represents a continuously updated assessment based on individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than pollsters, or where traders believe polls are inaccurate. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of the election's dynamics.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate is declared the winner of the Texas Senate election by official election results. The platform will rely on widely accepted and trustworthy sources to determine the winner, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of the market. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to and following the election date for updates on the official results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major events like televised debates, significant endorsements from influential figures, and the release of new polling data could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news regarding the candidates’ campaigns, such as controversies or changes in fundraising, could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader political developments or national trends could influence perceptions of the election’s outcome, causing shifts in the implied probabilities reflected in this market.
