TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Texas Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the Texas Senate election?

Oct 16, 2026, 12:25 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

James Talarico (D)

 - Opinion

James Talarico (D) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:37m

James Talarico (D)

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

James Talarico (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 37m
Active
opinion

Ken Paxton (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 37m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the Texas Senate election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of those outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows users to see how the collective predictions are evolving over time and which outcomes are attracting the most interest. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd stands on the likely winner of the election.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, factoring in not just stated preferences but also perceived likelihoods and potential shifts in sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, or the market’s ability to incorporate information beyond simple vote intention, such as fundraising data or candidate performance. It’s common to see this market adjust more quickly to new information than polls.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results declared by relevant election authorities for the Texas Senate election. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official count will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders will have until the resolution date to adjust their positions based on the latest information available.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign announcements, significant fundraising reports, key endorsements from influential figures, and unexpected shifts in polling data are all potential catalysts. Debates between candidates often lead to market adjustments as voters react to their performances. Furthermore, any unforeseen events—such as scandals or major policy shifts—could also impact the perceived likelihood of each candidate winning the Texas Senate election and, therefore, the prices in this market.