TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Texas Senate Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
limitless

Who will win the Texas Senate election?

Oct 14, 2026, 8:33 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$286
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

James Talarico (D)

 - Limitless

James Talarico (D) - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:37m

Texas Senate Election Winner: James Talarico (D)

76%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 76% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

James Talarico (D)

Trade
76%
5%
Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢
3¢
N/A
$283
0%
17,729%
N/A
1d 7h 37m
Active
limitless

Ken Paxton (R)

Trade
25%
6%
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢
3¢
N/A
$3
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 37m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Limitless

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Limitless, the dashboard for the Texas Senate election tracks the implied probability of various outcomes, the price history of those outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $286, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. You can see how traders are assessing the chances of different candidates winning, and observe how those probabilities shift over time as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction for the Texas Senate election.

On Limitless, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Texas Senate election. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a forward-looking assessment of the election's potential results.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results declared by relevant election authorities for the Texas Senate election. The candidate who receives the most votes, as certified by these authorities, will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for their contracts following the official announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign announcements, significant fundraising reports, debates between candidates, and endorsements from influential figures could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political trends could also influence perceptions of the race. Furthermore, any polling data releases showing a substantial change in voter preferences are likely to impact the market's pricing. Any news regarding candidate health or potential scandals could also cause notable fluctuations in this market.