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413,109

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Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Texas Senate Election: Tarrant County Winner

Sep 1, 2026, 1:32 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$52,513
Volume 24h:
$2,421
295%
Liquidity:
$46,840
9%
Open interest:
$18,939N/A

James Talarico (D)

 - Polymarket

James Talarico (D) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:05m

Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 91.8¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

James Talarico (D)

Trade
91%
4%
Yes 91.8¢No 10.4¢
2.2¢
$22,307
$34,791
6%
49%
N/A
1d 2h 5m
Active
polymarket

Ken Paxton (R)

Trade
7%
4%
Yes 8¢No 93.2¢
1.2¢
$24,533
$17,723
2%
48%
N/A
1d 2h 5m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outcome than many traditional polls. While polls often show a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of one outcome over another. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to sampling error, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and reflect continuously updated expectations. This difference could be due to factors not fully captured in polls, such as voter turnout models or perceptions of candidate momentum. It is also possible that the market is simply anticipating a polling miss, as they have often done in the past.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's potential results. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders on the platform, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations for the Tarrant County Senate race. The total volume traded demonstrates the level of interest in this particular market.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate wins the election for the Texas Senate seat representing Tarrant County. The platform will rely on official election results as reported by relevant authorities to determine the winning candidate. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected developments in the candidates' campaigns could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they deviate substantially from current averages, would also likely cause movement. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting voter turnout or candidate viability – such as debates, gaffes, or major policy announcements – could lead to substantial shifts in the market. The overall political climate and national trends could also play a role in shaping expectations for the Tarrant County Senate race.