TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
- Polymarket
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:04h:12m
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, the current probability reflects trader sentiment about the Texas Senate and Governor combo market. While polling averages offer another perspective, this market’s pricing can diverge due to real-time trading dynamics, perceived insider information, and betting patterns. Traders may assign different weightings to recent polls, candidate momentum, or economic indicators than traditional pollsters do. As election day approaches, shifts in voter sentiment or major news events can cause this market’s odds to move independently from public polling trends.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through a decentralized betting pool, where the current top outcome — a Republican sweep — holds a chance of 40.0%. The market’s price fluctuates based on the flow of bets, with volume of $85,426 providing liquidity for traders to adjust positions as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will depend on officially certified vote tallies for both the Texas Senate and Governor races, ensuring an accurate reflection of the voters’ decisions.
Several key signals could shift probabilities in this market before Nov 4, 2026. Debates, economic announcements, or scandals involving major candidates often cause rapid adjustments. Changes in polling averages, especially in pivotal districts, may also influence trader behavior. Additionally, external factors such as national political trends, fundraising reports, or voter turnout forecasts can impact expectations. As the election cycle progresses, any development that alters the perceived likelihood of a Republican sweep will likely drive volatility in this market.
