TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win the Texas Governor election?
Greg Abbott (R)
- Predict
Greg Abbott (R) - Predict
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:08h:28m
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of stated voter intentions, this market aggregates real-money wagers, potentially revealing more about what individuals *believe* will happen, rather than what they *say* will happen. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated an ability to forecast election outcomes with accuracy comparable to or exceeding that of polls, particularly as the election draws nearer. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market represents one data point among many.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, indicating higher perceived probability, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic pricing allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the election cycle progresses.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results declared by the relevant election authorities in Texas. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official election results will be deemed the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant shifts in fundraising numbers, unexpected debate performances, and the release of compelling polling data are all potential catalysts. Additionally, unforeseen events such as scandals or major policy announcements could also impact trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Changes in the broader political landscape, like national trends or economic indicators, could also influence how this market behaves as Nov 4, 2026 approaches.
