TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 7:27 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing their views on the Tesla stock closing price. These views, reflected in the odds on Polymarket, can be compared to traditional analyst forecasts. If a consensus among analysts predicts a certain price range, it’s insightful to see whether this market prices in a higher or lower probability of that outcome occurring. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market believes analysts may be over- or underestimating the potential movement of the Tesla stock.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the Tesla stock closing price. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information and adjusts probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Tesla stock closing price for the week of October 19 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final closing price will be sourced from a major financial exchange and used to determine which outcome in this market is the winner. Traders who correctly predicted the closing price will be rewarded based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major news regarding Tesla’s production numbers, earnings reports, or announcements about new products could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact the stock price and, consequently, this market. Unexpected events, like regulatory changes or significant shifts in investor confidence in the electric vehicle sector, could also play a role in moving the odds.