TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

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4,377

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5

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Temu Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What will be Temu Credit Card Spend in September?

Volume:
$25,887

Above 106

 - Kalshi

Above 106 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 1:17 PM EST

kalshi

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View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 106

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,547
N/A
N/A
$3,330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,190
N/A
N/A
$2,465
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,789
N/A
N/A
$2,254
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 116

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,467
N/A
N/A
$1,772
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 110

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,227
N/A
N/A
$1,851
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 113

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,210
N/A
N/A
$1,897
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 120

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,860
N/A
N/A
$4,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 126

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,694
N/A
N/A
$2,198
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 134

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
$1,738
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

The markets evaluate different thresholds of year-over-year growth in Temu credit card spending for September 2026, using data from Carbon Arc. Each threshold represents a specific level of increase compared to the same month in the previous year, with higher thresholds indicating more significant growth.

Kalshi

All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it to the same month in the prior year. The index, where 100 represents equal spending year-over-year, is derived from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily. Each market has a unique threshold (e.g., above 96, above 102, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the first reported value meets or exceeds that threshold. Any corrections or revisions to the data after the market settlement will not affect the outcome. The index measures percentage changes in spending, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Temu credit card spend market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $15,943. This visual representation helps traders monitor how market participants price expectations for Temu's credit card spending performance in September, showing shifts in sentiment as new information emerges. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity and probability assessments within short_topic.

Analyst forecasts for the Temu credit card spend market often differ from prediction market odds. Analysts may incorporate broader economic trends and company-specific insights that aren't fully reflected in market pricing. Traders on Kalshi set prices based on real-time sentiment and available data, which can lead to variations in expected outcomes. While analysts might offer more detailed, model-driven projections, this market reflects crowd-sourced expectations that can shift rapidly with new information or market dynamics.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. By that date, official financial statements or reputable news sources will publish the actual credit card spend figures for Temu in September. The market settles based on whether the reported figures meet predefined thresholds, closing all positions and determining final payouts for participants according to the verified data.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key earnings releases, consumer confidence surveys, changes in interest rates, and any major announcements from Temu regarding credit card adoption or promotional campaigns will all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader economic trends affecting consumer spending, such as inflation data or shifts in discretionary income, may cause rapid re-pricing. Geopolitical events or regulatory updates impacting e-commerce platforms could also create volatility, especially if they affect Temu's user base or financial performance.