TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Temu Credit Card Spend in October
kalshi

How will Temu credit card spend change in October?

Oct 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$51,517
Volume 24h:
$1,699
71%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$21,343
3%

Above 73

 - Kalshi

Above 73 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 14, 2026

Time left: 10d:21h:01m

Will Temu Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 73 ?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 36% 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 73

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$1,581
0%
321%
$1,216
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 99

Trade
96%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$1,208
2%
72%
$545
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 105

Trade
83%
Yes 76¢No 40¢
16¢
N/A
$13,180
12%
83%
$8,500
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 107

Trade
41%
12%
Yes 46¢No 63¢
9¢
N/A
$9,708
3%
N/A
$4,468
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 111

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 17¢No 92¢
9¢
N/A
$3,938
0.51%
56%
$1,018
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 129

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$332
0%
0%
$7
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 213

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$10
0%
0%
$10
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 161

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$408
0%
0%
$112
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 117

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$11,060
0%
22%
$1,209
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 123

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$7,142
0%
183%
$2,237
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 239

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2,539
1%
25,290%
$1,840
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 135

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$412
0%
0%
$181
1w 3d 21h
Active
kalshi

Above 187

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 21h
Active
Total markets: 13

Description

These markets track potential growth in spending on a specific credit card during October 2026, measured against year-over-year changes. The outcomes depend on whether spending exceeds various thresholds, reflecting different levels of consumer engagement or economic activity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend index for October 2026, comparing it to specified thresholds. The index measures year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions processed through the Temu Credit Card, with 100 representing equal spending to the same month in the prior year. Values above 100 indicate growth, while values below 100 indicate decline. Determination occurs at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day following the end of October 2026, using finalized Carbon Arc data. The markets resolve to "Yes" if the index exceeds the respective threshold for each market; otherwise, they resolve to "No". The index is derived from Carbon Arc's aggregated transaction panel, updated daily with new data. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Temu credit card spend market tracks the current odds of whether October 2026 Temu credit card spending will exceed 99. You can view the price history, which shows how the market has priced in information over time, as well as the 24-hour volume, currently at $1,679. The total volume traded on this market is $51,517. This allows participants to gauge interest and potential shifts in sentiment regarding Temu's future credit card usage.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for Temu’s credit card spending. However, the market represents a collective intelligence view, aggregating the opinions of numerous traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. If analysts are consistently predicting higher or lower spending than what is reflected in the price of this market, it could suggest a divergence in perspectives on Temu’s growth trajectory and consumer spending habits.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting the price based on their beliefs about the outcome. The price reflects the probability of Temu credit card spend for October 2026 being above 99. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on publicly available data regarding Temu’s total credit card spend during the month of October 2026. The specific data source will be determined closer to the resolution date to ensure accuracy and reliability. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether their predictions were correct once the data is officially released.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Major announcements from Temu regarding their promotional strategies, expansion plans, or credit card partnerships would likely cause movement. Broader economic indicators, such as consumer confidence levels, inflation rates, and overall retail spending trends, could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding Temu’s regulatory challenges or competitive landscape could also shift trader sentiment and impact the market price.