TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between September 29, 12:00 PM ET and October 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding Senator Cruz’s anticipated social media activity. While polls capture stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on the outcome. This difference can be significant, as market prices aggregate information from a diverse range of sources and incentivize accurate predictions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when events are subject to complex factors or hidden information, and this market is no exception.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the eventual outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market’s price indicates the perceived likelihood of a specific post count range for Senator Cruz during the defined timeframe.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between September 29th and October 6th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of posts across all of his official platforms, ensuring transparency and objectivity. The outcome will be determined by the actual number of posts, not by any subjective interpretation or external assessment.
Several factors could significantly influence the trading activity in this market. Major news events involving Senator Cruz, changes in his social media strategy, or broader political developments could all shift trader sentiment. An unexpected announcement regarding his public appearances or policy positions could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, any indication of increased or decreased engagement with his existing social media content might prompt traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market.
