TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 4:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 9, 12:00 PM ET and October 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 9, 12:00 PM ET and October 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional polling data, as polls focusing on this specific metric are unlikely to exist. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information than polls, including news events, social media trends, and expert opinions. If polling data were to emerge suggesting a high or low likelihood of a certain post count, it would be interesting to see if this market’s probabilities align or diverge, potentially indicating differing beliefs about Senator Cruz's social media strategy.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the collective actions of all participants on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between October 9 and October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of publicly available posts across all of his official platforms, and the market will settle to reflect whether the actual number of posts falls above or below the threshold defined by the market’s outcome options.
Several factors could influence this market. Any significant news events involving Senator Cruz, changes to his social media strategy, or major political developments could all shift trader sentiment. A large-scale political event occurring during the specified timeframe could prompt increased or decreased posting activity. Furthermore, any statements made by Senator Cruz regarding his social media usage could also move this market. Unexpected events or controversies could also lead to a change in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes.
