TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 2:07 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polls focusing on the posting frequency of politicians are uncommon. However, prediction markets often reflect a different kind of insight than polls – the wisdom of the crowd actively putting capital at risk. This means the probabilities displayed here represent not just what people *think* will happen, but what they are *willing to bet* will happen. It’s possible that analysis of Senator Cruz’s past social media behavior could provide a benchmark for comparison, but this market represents a forward-looking assessment.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts (specifically X, formerly Twitter) between October 6 and October 13, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of posts will be determined by a count of all original posts made during that timeframe, excluding retweets or reposts. The outcome will be based on publicly available data and verified against credible public sources.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Major political events occurring during the specified timeframe, such as a significant legislative debate or a high-profile news story involving Senator Cruz, could shift traders' expectations. Changes in Senator Cruz’s social media strategy or a noticeable increase or decrease in his posting frequency leading up to October 2026 would also be key signals. Finally, any announcements regarding his campaign plans or public appearances could also move this market as traders adjust their predictions.
