TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:36 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as polls focusing on the posting habits of politicians are not commonly conducted. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are analyzing a variety of factors, including Senator Cruz’s past social media behavior, upcoming political events during that timeframe, and potential news cycles that might influence his activity. When compared to expert forecasts, this market provides a distinct, real-time perspective on the likelihood of different outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving sentiment of traders. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updated assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between October 27th and November 3rd, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of all publicly available posts across his verified accounts. The specific number of posts that will determine the winning outcome will be determined by the highest probability outcome at the time of resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major political announcements or controversies involving Senator Cruz could increase or decrease his social media activity. The timing of significant legislative votes or debates could also influence his posting frequency. Unexpected news events, such as a major national or international crisis, might shift his focus and impact his social media engagement. Furthermore, changes in his campaign strategy or communication team could lead to alterations in his social media behavior, all of which would be reflected in this market.
