TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 23, 12:00 PM ET and October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 23, 12:00 PM ET and October 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
It’s often interesting to compare the predictions made in this market to those from traditional polls or expert analysis. While polls capture a snapshot of current opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize participants to consider all available information and express their true beliefs with real capital. Currently, the implied probability in this market may differ from polling averages regarding Senator Cruz’s likely social media activity during the specified period, potentially indicating a different assessment of influencing factors.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the market’s collective prediction. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares that are bought indicating a specific outcome, the higher the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding the number of posts from Senator Cruz between October 23 and October 30, 2026.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a verified count of the number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts (e.g., X, Facebook) between October 23 and October 30, 2026. The precise number of posts will be compared to the ranges offered in this market to determine which outcome is correct. The final outcome will be determined by objective data, not subjective interpretation.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any major political developments involving Senator Cruz, such as significant legislative actions or prominent media appearances, could shift expectations about his social media activity. Changes in the overall political climate or major news events occurring during the October 23-30, 2026 timeframe could also play a role. Furthermore, Senator Cruz’s own communication strategy and any announced plans regarding his social media usage could significantly impact trading activity in this market.
