TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 7:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polls focusing on social media posting frequency are rare. However, the implied probability from this market offers a different perspective than polls, reflecting not just what people *think* will happen, but what they are *willing to bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially when considering events influenced by unpredictable factors or strategic behavior. The market aggregates information from a diverse range of participants, potentially offering a more dynamic forecast than a single point-in-time poll.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between October 20 and October 27, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on a count of publicly available posts across his verified accounts, and will not include replies or re-posts of other users' content. The final outcome will be determined by the total number of original posts made during the specified timeframe.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Major political events, such as a significant policy announcement or a controversial statement by Senator Cruz, could lead to increased social media activity. Changes in the political climate or media coverage surrounding Senator Cruz could also affect his posting behavior. Unexpected events, like a natural disaster or a major news story, might also prompt him to engage more actively on social media. Any indication of a shift in Senator Cruz’s communication strategy would likely move this market.
