TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages reveals how collective prediction differs from traditional surveys. For this market, it’s important to consider that polls often capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on. If polls consistently show a different expectation for Senator Cruz’s posting frequency than what is priced into this market, it could indicate disagreement about his likely behavior or differing levels of confidence in the poll's accuracy. It’s also possible that traders have access to information not reflected in public polling data.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between October 2nd and October 9th, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an objective assessment of his publicly available posts, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the actual outcome of Senator Cruz’s social media activity during that timeframe.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major political developments involving Senator Cruz, such as a significant policy announcement or involvement in a high-profile debate, could influence his social media activity. Changes in the political climate or public discourse surrounding key issues could also prompt increased or decreased posting. Unexpected events, like a major news story or a shift in campaign strategy, could also play a role. Any indication of Senator Cruz’s planned social media strategy during that period would also likely impact trading activity in this market.
