TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 16, 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 16, 12:00 PM ET and October 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional polling data. Polls typically gauge stated intentions, while this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. Public opinion polls regarding Senator Cruz's social media activity are not readily available, making a direct comparison challenging. However, if polls were to indicate a strong expectation of increased or decreased social media engagement, we might see corresponding shifts in the pricing of this market.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts (X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.) between October 16th and October 23rd, 2026, inclusive. The exact number of posts will be verified against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual count, and shares will be settled accordingly.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments involving Senator Cruz, such as a high-profile legislative debate or a controversial public statement, could lead to increased or decreased social media activity. Unexpected news events, both personal and political, could also influence his posting frequency. Furthermore, changes in social media platform algorithms or Senator Cruz’s own social media strategy could shift the market. Any significant shift in public attention towards Senator Cruz is likely to move this market.
