TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between October 13, 12:00 PM ET and October 20, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polls focusing on social media posting frequency are uncommon. However, the market reflects a collective forecast based on real money at stake, potentially incorporating information not captured in polls—such as Senator Cruz’s historical posting patterns, upcoming political events, and anticipated media coverage. If polls were to emerge suggesting a significant shift in his anticipated activity, we might expect to see corresponding changes in this market’s pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official X (formerly Twitter) account between October 13th and October 20th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of all posts made during that timeframe, and the outcome range with the highest number of posts will be considered the winning outcome for this market. The exact number of posts will be determined by an independent assessment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Major political announcements or controversies involving Senator Cruz could significantly alter his social media activity. Changes to X’s platform policies or algorithms could also impact posting behavior. Unexpected events, such as a major news cycle or a personal event, could also lead to increased or decreased posting. Finally, any public statements from Senator Cruz regarding his social media strategy could move this market as traders adjust their expectations.
