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417,059
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Time left: 07d:16h:32m
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional polling averages regarding Senator Cruz's social media activity. Polls typically gauge public opinion on political issues or candidates themselves, while this market focuses on a specific, quantifiable behavior – the number of posts. While both attempt to forecast future events, they approach it from different angles. It’s possible that this market could offer a more precise forecast, as it directly reflects beliefs about the likelihood of a measurable outcome, rather than relying on stated intentions or preferences.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The most actively traded outcome currently suggests a high probability of Senator Cruz posting within a specific range, as indicated by the current odds. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between November 3 and November 10, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by publicly available data, and the market will settle based on which outcome range accurately reflects the actual number of posts made during that timeframe. The resolution will be based on a verified count of posts, not any subjective interpretation.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Major political events, such as significant legislative debates or breaking news stories involving Senator Cruz, could lead to increased social media engagement and thus shift the odds. Changes in Senator Cruz’s communication strategy, or announcements regarding his public appearances, could also impact expectations. Unexpected events or controversies could also cause fluctuations in the market as traders reassess the likelihood of different posting volumes. Overall, any event that alters perceptions of Senator Cruz’s online activity could move this market.
