TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)
kalshi

Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Volume:
$15,221

Above $50M

 - Kalshi

Above $50M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $50M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,922
N/A
N/A
$923
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $25M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,541
N/A
N/A
$2,003
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $35M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,505
N/A
N/A
$1,043
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $45M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,421
N/A
N/A
$658
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $30M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,004
N/A
N/A
$373
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $60M

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$967
N/A
N/A
$947
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $40M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
$287
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $55M

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
$308
1w 5d 20h
Yes
kalshi

Above $70M

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
$596
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $65M

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167
N/A
N/A
$137
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $80M

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$37
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $75M

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $90M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $85M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1w 5d 20h
No
kalshi

Above $95M

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 20h
No
Total markets: 15

Description

Talarico for Texas is a political campaign committee raising funds for a Texas election. This event measures the total amount of money the committee received during the third quarter of 2026, from July 1 through September 30, reflecting the campaign's fundraising momentum during this period.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Talarico for Texas's total receipts reported in official Federal Election Commission filings for the period from July 1 through September 30, 2026. The event establishes six distinct thresholds at $25 million, $30 million, $35 million, $40 million, $45 million, and $50 million. Each threshold operates independently: if total receipts exceed a given threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Resolution uses only the first official or non-preliminary FEC release; subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as polling data specifically focused on campaign finance receipt predictions is not widely available. However, the market reflects a collective assessment of informed traders, incorporating various factors beyond simple public opinion, such as fundraising trends, campaign spending, and overall political climate. This allows for a potentially more nuanced and forward-looking view than polls alone. The current pricing suggests a high degree of confidence in the campaign's fundraising ability, but this can shift based on new information.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the specified receipt threshold is met, and conversely, what they are willing to accept for a contract that pays out if it is not.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total receipts reported by the Talarico for Texas campaign for the third quarter are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official figures released by the relevant authorities, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will be able to see the final reported receipts and how they align with the different contract outcomes offered in this market. The market will then settle based on whether the campaign exceeded the specified thresholds.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major fundraising announcements from the Talarico for Texas campaign, or from opposing candidates, would be key catalysts. Changes in the overall political landscape, such as shifts in voter sentiment or significant endorsements, could also influence trader expectations. Unexpected economic news or events that affect donor capacity could also play a role. Finally, any reporting on campaign spending strategies or potential legal challenges related to campaign finance could move this market before it resolves.