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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?
polymarket

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin?

Volume:
$18,511

66% to 67%

 - Polymarket

66% to 67% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 4:18 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

66% to 67%

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

68% to 69%

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,689
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

67% to 68%

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<66%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

69%+

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Taiwan Semiconductor's gross profit margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Taiwan Semiconductor's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the TSM gross profit margin market displays the current odds for various margin ranges, allowing traders to see which outcomes are favored. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. You can view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $4,678, and the total volume traded to date, which is $18,375. This provides insight into market activity and how much capital is allocated to different potential outcomes for Taiwan Semiconductor's Q3 gross profit margin.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different gross profit margin ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. The current top outcome, a margin of 67% to 68%, has a substantial share of the volume, indicating strong conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Q3 gross profit margin for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the figure reported in TSM’s official financial statements, as released by the company. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome matches the actual reported margin. It’s important to monitor news releases from TSM leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors influencing the final result.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected announcements regarding demand for semiconductors, particularly from major customers like Apple or Nvidia, would likely have an impact. Changes in the global economic outlook, especially concerning China’s economic growth, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any news related to production disruptions at TSM’s facilities, or significant shifts in raw material costs, would be closely watched by traders. Finally, revisions to analyst estimates for TSM’s revenue or earnings could also influence trading activity in this market.