TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will TSM/USDT be up or down by October 19?

Volume:
$191

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$100
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the TSMC stock market tracks the current odds of the stock going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $190, and the total volume traded to date, which is $191. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential movement of TSMC stock before Oct 19, 2026. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for TSMC. While many analysts maintain a positive outlook on the company’s long-term prospects, the market is weighing short-term factors and potential risks. This market allows for a more dynamic assessment, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders, offering a unique signal that may diverge from conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the TSMC stock will be up or down by the resolution date. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, creating a constantly updated assessment of the stock’s potential movement. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the TSMC stock price closes higher or lower during the specified 1PM-1:15PM ET window on October 19th. The final price will be sourced from a major financial exchange and will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant documentation on Predict following the resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major announcements from TSMC regarding earnings, new contracts, or technological advancements would be key catalysts. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in global economic growth or interest rate decisions, could also influence investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting Taiwan or the semiconductor industry, represent another potential source of volatility. Unexpected news regarding key competitors or supply chain disruptions could also shift the odds in this market.