TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks Taco Bell's customer traffic performance for September 2026 using a year-over-year index. The index compares September 2026 foot traffic to the same month in the previous year, with values above 100 indicating growth. The data is sourced from mobile location analytics and adjusted for seasonal variations.
All markets in this event are determined by the Carbon Arc Taco Bell Foot Traffic index for September 2026. The index measures year-over-year changes in foot traffic, where a value of 100 indicates equal traffic compared to the same month last year, with higher values signifying growth and lower values indicating decline. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., above 97.5, above 98.5, etc.), and if the reported index for September 2026 meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The determining value is the first report published by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after the market settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, matched to the same calendar days as the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. Updates to the index occur daily as new data becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially reported foot traffic data for the relevant period, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Weather events, regional holidays, or unexpected changes in Taco Bell’s operating hours may cause traders to adjust their positions. Additionally, news about new menu releases, marketing campaigns, or broader consumer trends could influence expectations and move the market odds meaningfully as Oct 15, 2026 approaches.