TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 12:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether Sylvia Luke will cease to hold the position of Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before specified dates in 2026. A departure includes any permanent end to her tenure, such as resignation, removal, or term expiration, but not temporary absences.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if Sylvia Luke permanently ceases to hold the position of Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before either September 1, 2026, or November 1, 2026, whichever occurs first. A valid departure requires an actual date on which she vacates the role within the relevant time frame. Permanent cessation of the role includes resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or any other means by which she no longer occupies the position, whether voluntary or involuntary. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals do not count unless they result in a formal, permanent end to her tenure. If she vacates the role and later returns, the market settles based on the initial departure. In the event of death while in office, contracts may resolve at the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion.
Frequently asked questions
Analyst forecasts for the Hawaii Lieutenant Governor succession market vary, but most expect continuity unless unexpected political developments arise. This market currently reflects trader sentiment that aligns more closely with recent polling trends than with traditional political analysis. While analysts may emphasize institutional factors, the market incorporates real-time betting dynamics that can shift rapidly with news cycles or public statements. Traders often react faster to emerging signals than published reports, making this market a live barometer of changing expectations.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through continuous bidding, with the current implied probability reflecting collective expectations about leadership changes in Hawaii. The market price adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and recent news, capturing immediate market sentiment. As Jan 1, 2027 approaches, volatility may increase if new political developments emerge, influencing both the price and trading activity. Volume of $8,444 and 24-hour volume of $0 provide insight into market interest and liquidity levels.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will reflect whether Sylvia Luke is still serving as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii at that point, based on authoritative news sources and official government records.
Several key signals could shift this market before it resolves. Major political announcements, such as resignations, scandals, or party realignments, would directly impact expectations. Public opinion polls showing significant shifts in support for potential successors might also move the odds. Legislative actions or crises requiring leadership changes could rapidly alter market dynamics. As Jan 1, 2027 nears, any verified reports of official transitions will be closely watched by traders, potentially causing sharp price movements in either direction.
