TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the comparative foot traffic performance of Sweetgreen restaurants in a specific month, using an index that reflects year-over-year changes. The index accounts for variables such as weather and holidays to provide a normalized comparison, helping to gauge consumer demand trends against the previous year.
All markets in this event are determined by the Carbon Arc Sweetgreen Foot Traffic index for September 2026, reported for that month. The index measures year-over-year foot traffic changes, with 100 representing equal traffic to the same month last year, values above 100 indicating growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., above 96, above 98, etc.), and if the reported index exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, matched to the same calendar days as the prior year and normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of upcoming results. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and company reports, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, social media buzz, and real-time consumer behavior indicators. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent events.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the foot traffic figures are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official data release, closing the market and determining which outcome was correct.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including local events or weather conditions affecting foot traffic, new marketing campaigns from Sweetgreen, broader economic changes influencing consumer spending, and reports on competitor activity. Any unexpected news or data releases could cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as traders reassess probabilities.