Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
Start: 2026-10-16T03:00:56.000Z
End: 2026-11-03T04:59:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Mary Peltola (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Dan Sullivan (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) or Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-alaska-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Mary Peltola (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Dan Sullivan (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) or Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Sullivan (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Dan Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D) in the "Alaska Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-alaska-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Alaska Senate race tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume is $4 and total volume to date is $25,039. Traders on Polymarket are expressing their beliefs about who will win the Senate seat through buy and sell orders, which dynamically adjust the market’s price. The dashboard provides a visual representation of these shifts in sentiment, allowing you to monitor how predictions evolve over time.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives the price up, indicating growing confidence in that outcome, while increased selling pressure drives it down. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd participating on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Alaska Senate race by relevant election authorities. The market will settle to 100% for the winning candidate and 0% for all others. Traders should monitor news sources and official election results as the election date approaches to understand how the outcome will be determined and verified.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed through new polling data could all impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any unforeseen events affecting either candidate—such as a major policy debate performance or a campaign scandal—could lead to substantial price fluctuations. Finally, changes in national political trends or broader economic conditions could also influence how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes in this race.

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

Alaska Senate candidate denies knowing about alleged plot to put two Dan Sullivans on ballot