TOTAL VOLUME:

$115b

24H VOL:

$136,758,144

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,328,568,758

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,203,416,144

319,420

Markets across

31,372

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,061

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

polymarket

kalshi

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Total volume:

$5,276,985

Volume 24h:

$171,869

417%

Liquidity:

$824,877

14%

Open interest:

$25,246

0.66%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

- Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Polymarket

6%

-8%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 15

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Vol.

$1.8m

·

Resolves Nov 30, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 6¢ buys you 1,667 shares | Odds: 6% Total Payout: $1,667 | Net Profit: $1,567 Multiplier: 16.67x | ROI: 1,567% APY not meaningful 38 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

6%

Yes 6¢

No 95¢

1¢

$824,877

$5,233,662

3%

52%

N/A

1mo 1w 1d

active

kalshi

At least 70

5%

Yes 3¢

No 100¢

3¢

N/A

$223

0%

22,200%

$201

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 30

3%

Yes 4¢

No 98¢

2¢

N/A

$20,415

1%

26%

$10,021

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 40

3%

Yes 3¢

No 98¢

1¢

N/A

$8,411

0%

45%

$5,966

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 50

2%

Yes 2¢

No 99¢

1¢

N/A

$9,374

0%

20%

$6,473

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 80

2%

Yes 2¢

No 100¢

2¢

N/A

$331

35%

119%

$300

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 100

1%

Yes 1¢

No 100¢

1¢

N/A

$2,750

0%

8%

$1,099

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 60

1%

Yes 2¢

No 100¢

2¢

N/A

$1,695

0%

5%

$1,088

3mo 1w 2d

active

kalshi

At least 90

1%

Yes 2¢

No 100¢

2¢

N/A

$124

0%

68%

$98

3mo 1w 2d

active

Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by September 30, 2026, with the current aggregated consensus showing a 5.5% probability for yes and a 5.0% probability for the highest daily number of transit calls reaching at least 70 in August 2026, based on data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve using IMF Portwatch data. Watch for the IMF Portwatch publication of transit call data through September 30, 2026, as this will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence in threshold measurement (7-day moving average vs peak daily) and time window (anytime vs August only)Hero tip: Monitor both sustained average and peak daily figures. August data is critical for Kalshi while Polymarket remains open until September 30.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Resolves if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026
Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in August 2026

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Kalshi

This event evaluates whether daily vessel transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, achieve specified volume thresholds during August 2026. Multiple markets correspond to ascending numerical benchmarks — ranging from 30 to 100 transit calls per day — with each market resolving to 'Yes' if the highest single-day count meets or exceeds its respective threshold. The collective structure allows participants to assess varying levels of traffic intensity against a unified data source, reflecting both normal operational patterns and any unusual surges or constraints that may occur within the month.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of normal traffic levels by a key date. It displays real-time odds, volume of $5,276,985, and 24-hour volume of $97,703 across platforms. This centralized view lets you compare sentiment and positioning in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market, helping you spot shifts in expectations around geopolitical tensions or maritime disruptions.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader sentiment weighted by financial commitment, often differing from polling averages that sample public opinion. In this market, prices capture nuanced risk assessments and real-money stakes not present in surveys. While polls might highlight broad public sentiment on regional stability, market odds incorporate trading strategies, liquidity conditions, and diverse global participants, potentially offering a more forward-looking gauge of expected outcomes.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can diverge due to differences in user base, liquidity depth, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, varying volumes — $5,276,985 overall versus $97,703 in the last day — may amplify price swings on thinner books. Additionally, each platform’s trading mechanics and open interest influence how quickly new information is priced in, leading to temporary mismatches between Polymarket and Kalshi until arbitrageurs restore alignment.

This market resolves around Nov 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch maritime data releases, shipping industry updates, and geopolitical developments through the summer. The final determination hinges on whether traffic levels meet normal thresholds by the specified deadline, based on widely accepted sources that validate the factual state of passage through the strait.

Key signals include naval exercises, sanctions announcements, or incidents involving commercial vessels in the region. Media coverage of escalated tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can rapidly shift trader sentiment. Additionally, weekly shipping reports and oil flow data serve as leading indicators, while any unexpected conflict or infrastructure blockage would likely push odds toward the unfavorable outcome as participants reassess risks ahead of Nov 30, 2026.