TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.1b

24H VOL:

$71,055,475

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,258,445

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,125,890,903

320,244

Markets across

31,392

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,562

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

kalshi

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Total volume:

$591,865

Volume 24h:

$45,141

14%

Liquidity:

$155,779

23%

Open interest:

$41,718

33%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

- Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? - Polymarket

1.8%

-2.4%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Vol.

$236.2k

·

Resolves Sep 15, 2026

Time left: 20d:14h:22m

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 1.8¢ buys you 5,556 shares | Odds: 2% Total Payout: $5,556 | Net Profit: $5,456 Multiplier: 55.56x | ROI: 5,456% APY not meaningful 20 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

2%

Yes 1.8¢

No 98.3¢

0.1¢

$155,779

$524,511

6%

82%

N/A

2w 6d 14h

active

kalshi

Above 20

100%

14%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$10,650

N/A

N/A

$5,763

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 10

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

100¢

N/A

$5,955

N/A

N/A

$4,487

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 30

0%

14%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$22,115

N/A

N/A

$9,969

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 40

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$15,751

N/A

N/A

$11,840

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 50

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$5,770

N/A

N/A

$4,566

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 80

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$2,641

N/A

N/A

$1,623

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 60

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$2,353

N/A

N/A

$1,805

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 70

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$1,190

N/A

N/A

$798

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 150

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$301

N/A

N/A

$300

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 100

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$256

N/A

N/A

$226

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 90

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$224

N/A

N/A

$193

0d 0h 0m

No

kalshi

Above 125

0%

1%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

100¢

N/A

$147

N/A

N/A

$147

0d 0h 0m

No

Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by September 15, 2026, with the current consensus standing at 1.8%. Data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on IMF PortWatch publications. Watch for the publication of IMF PortWatch data between now and the September 15, 2026 end of the evaluation period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and timeframe mismatch between Polymarket and KalshiHero tip: Focus on Polymarket as it has a broader timeframe and a clear threshold. Kalshi’s narrow window and multiple thresholds create unnecessary complexity and potential for divergence.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Requires a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026.
Kalshi: Requires the number of transit calls to be above specific thresholds (10 to 150) from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specific threshold between August 10, 2026, and August 16, 2026. The total is calculated by summing the daily counts for the entire period. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard provides a live view of aggregated odds and volume across platforms for short_topic. It shows how traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of normal traffic resuming by Sep 15, 2026. The dashboard updates in real time, reflecting total volume of $538,312 and recent 24-hour volume of $69,189. This offers a consensus view of market expectations, letting users compare sentiment and positioning across venues.

Unlike traditional polling, this market uses continuous price discovery to reflect trader sentiment. Currently, odds show strong confidence in a return to normal conditions before Sep 15, 2026. Polling data, where available, often lags market pricing because it captures public opinion rather than speculative positioning. The market’s dynamic nature allows rapid adjustments to new geopolitical developments, whereas polls update on fixed schedules. Traders may react faster to intelligence reports or shipping data than pollsters can survey the public.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, pricing can diverge due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more geopolitics-focused traders, skewing its odds. Additionally, varying volume — $538,312 across the group versus $69,189 in the last day — can amplify price swings. Each venue also applies unique fee structures and order types, influencing how traders place bets and thus the visible probability.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will assess whether traffic levels have returned to normal based on widely reported shipping data and official statements. The exact definition of “normal” is consistent across platforms, ensuring a unified result. No single source exclusively determines the outcome — instead, multiple reputable news outlets and maritime authorities are consulted to confirm the factual status of passage by the deadline.

Key signals include naval deployments, diplomatic announcements, or incidents such as hijackings or sanctions enforcement. Any escalation or de-escalation in regional tensions can shift trader sentiment quickly. Economic indicators, like oil price spikes or changes in shipping insurance rates, also serve as indirect market movers. Media coverage of fleet movements or infrastructure attacks may cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will watch both official statements from regional powers and real-time tracking of commercial vessels through the strait.