TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Sep 9, 6:14 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage influencing global oil shipments and regional geopolitics. Monitoring daily transit calls offers insight into economic activity and potential disruptions. September 2026 will be watched closely for any significant shifts in traffic patterns.
Kalshi
This event series evaluates whether the peak daily vessel transit count through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially recorded by the IMF PortWatch during September 2026, meets or exceeds specified thresholds. Multiple markets correspond to ascending numerical benchmarks — ranging from five to fifty transit calls in a single day — each resolving to 'Yes' if the recorded maximum meets or surpasses its respective threshold. The IMF PortWatch serves as the definitive data source for determining actual transit figures, with all markets settling based solely on this authoritative report at the conclusion of September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren’t widely available polls specifically forecasting the highest daily traffic count through the Strait of Hormuz. However, expert analysis often focuses on factors like geopolitical tensions, oil production levels, and global trade volume, all of which influence shipping activity. Discrepancies between this market and expert forecasts could indicate areas where the wisdom of the crowd diverges from conventional thinking about potential disruptions or increased demand in the region.
This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch for the month of September 2026 will determine the outcome. The resolution will rely on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining which outcome aligns with the actual traffic figures recorded during that period.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers would likely increase perceived risk and potentially drive up the price of contracts predicting higher traffic (due to rerouting or increased military presence). Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or a decrease in global oil demand could lower prices. Major disruptions to oil production in the Middle East, or significant changes to shipping routes, are also key factors that traders will be watching closely as they assess the probabilities in this market.
